As COVID-19 continues its latest falloff—U.S. and global cases are down by more than 30% over the past five weeks—close observers are trying to unravel the mystery of the virus’s repeating two-month cycles of surges and retreats.
“The most-plausible explanations involve some combination of virus biology and social networks,” New York Times senior writer David Leonhardt writes in Oct. 4 commentary.
It could be that each strain ebbs as it runs out of vulnerable immune systems to infect, or maybe two months is the time it takes an average-sized community to develop group immunity, Leonhardt suggests.
In any case, the uncertainty also means that “the near future could prove to be more encouraging than we expect,” Leonhardt comments. “And there are some legitimate reasons for COVID optimism.”
Among these:
- More than three-quarters of Americans 12 and up have received at least one shot;
- The ranks of the vaccinated are likely to continue growing this fall as mandates kick in and a dose for children earns FDA approval; and
- Something close to half of Americans have natural immunity after contracting and beating COVID.
More:
COVID isn’t going to disappear anytime soon. It will continue to circulate for years, many scientists believe. But the vaccines can transform COVID into a manageable disease, not so different from a flu or common cold. In the past few weeks, the country appears to have moved closer to that less-grim future. … Whatever the next few months bring, the worst of the pandemic is almost certainly behind us.”
Full piece here via Yahoo! News.
Dave P. has worked in journalism, marketing and public relations for more than 30 years, frequently concentrating on hospitals, healthcare technology and Catholic communications. He has also specialized in fundraising communications, ghostwriting for CEOs of local, national and global charities, nonprofits and foundations.