During his ABC News town hall Tuesday night, President Donald Trump suggested a COVID vaccine may be FDA-approved by early to mid-October. “[W]e’re within weeks of getting it,” he said. “Could be three weeks, four weeks.”
He left unclear whether “getting it” referred to widespread availability or just approval following safety and efficacy testing.
In any case, four other high-level COVID watchers have recently weighed in on the pressing question. Here’s a rundown from most to least optimistic:
Paul Mango, MBA, deputy chief of staff for policy at HHS: “We are under contract to get enough doses, and we have a line of sight right now into the clinical trials such that we believe” a vaccine will be cleared before the end of the year. “The combination of those two will permit us to vaccinate every American before the end of first quarter 2021.” (Bloomberg News)
Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases and lead member of the Trump administration’s White House Coronavirus Task Force: “When we get a vaccine, let’s say, available at the end of the year, there will be millions and tens of millions of doses available. It won’t be until we get into 2021 that you’ll have hundreds of millions of doses.” (ClickOnDetroit)
Scott Gottlieb, MD, former FDA commissioner: “[M]ost people … will not have access to a vaccine until 2021. I think maybe the first quarter of 2021, probably the first half of 2021. And that's assuming these vaccines are demonstrated to be safe and effective in these large trials.” (CBS News)
Robert Redfield, MD, director of the CDC: “If you’re asking me when is [a vaccine] going to be available to the American public, I think we’re probably looking at late second quarter, third quarter 2021.” (CNBC)
As it happened, the President’s remarks came one day before HHS released a document sketching out a plan for vaccine distribution under the Operation Warp Speed public-private partnership initiated by the Trump Administration.
“With support provided through emergency supplemental and flexible discretionary funding, Operation Warp Speed has now made strong progress toward a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine, with multiple candidates in Phase 3 clinical trials,” the document authors write. … “Some variables that will impact the planning of this vaccination program are unknown until a vaccine is authorized or approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), such as populations for whom a given vaccine is most appropriate, distribution and storage requirements, dosage requirements and other variables.”
Dave P. has worked in journalism, marketing and public relations for more than 30 years, frequently concentrating on hospitals, healthcare technology and Catholic communications. He has also specialized in fundraising communications, ghostwriting for CEOs of local, national and global charities, nonprofits and foundations.